NASA has updated the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered last year and large enough to destroy a city, colliding with Earth in 2032 to 3.1%. On February 7, the U.S. space agency initially increased the impact probability from 1.2% to 2.3%. This figure was later revised to 2.6%, and most recently, it has reached 3.1%.
According to scientific estimates, 2024 YR4 has an approximate diameter of 54 meters. While it is not large enough to cause the end of human civilization, experts warn that it could still devastate a major city. Simulations suggest that if an impact were to occur, it could release about 8 megatons of energy—more than 500 times the energy of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.
Although NASA has observed an increase in the probability of impact, scientists emphasize that the risk is still relatively low. Current calculations indicate that the asteroid has a 96.9% chance of missing Earth. Moreover, further precise measurements in the coming years could potentially reduce this risk to zero.
According to NASA’s planetary defense team, 2024 YR4 is currently the only known large asteroid with an impact probability greater than 1%. If it were to strike Earth, the most likely impact zone would be along a risk corridor stretching across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.